Yves here. I have to admit that I have taken my eye off the Russian football, without noticing the sounds and violent plans from European countries, as well as the rising steps like the threat of the Russian fleet. But Trump is now doubling down on failure. He aligns himself with Europe, which he dismisses as losers and prioritized in his National Security Strategy. His initial push, to end the conflict in Ukraine and improve relations with China, may not have been enough to drive Russia away from China but it could have led Russia to perform a complex balancing act, taking into account US interests. But Trump couldn’t deliver on his “Spirit of Alaska” plan. A reasonable guess is that Trump made promises about Ukraine action that Zelensky rejected.
So Trump is back to supporting Ukraine to weaken Russia….an old Biden plan. And with the US overstretched and underarmed, this also weakens the US’s ability to bully its #1 enemy, China. Another event that Trump ignores is a quote by Sun Tsu, “All tactics and no tactics are sound before defeat.”
By Andrew Korybko, an American political analyst based in Moscow who focuses on the transition of the global system to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Originally published on his website.
Trump’s decision to sign the “joint statement of the G7 leaders on world affairs” calling for more weapons in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia showed that he is now “moving towards collapse” (E2DE) with the “war of xenophobia” waged by Ukraine. The EU will back off this campaign and Trump 2.0 will seek to gain control of Russian natural resource companies as his top goal through a forced sale of shares under pain of ongoing NATO-backed Ukrainian strikes against related infrastructure if Putin refuses.
His E2DE management strategy is beginning to take shape. About two weeks before he signed the aforementioned joint statement, the House passed a bill that would “provide[e] more than $1 billion in security and reconstruction assistance. It will commit an additional $8 billion to bailout Ukraine. ” On the sidelines of the G7 Summit, Trump then said he would soon reimpose oil sanctions against Russia, which could disrupt Putin’s Sino-Indo balancing act.
At the same time, “A group of US senators has introduced legislation that would amend existing law to allow Ukraine to use assets seized from the Russian Central Bank and other Russian private assets to buy military forces.” All of this coincides with reports that the Senate has reinserted language into the National Defense Authorization Act of 2027 (NDAA) seeking to continue intelligence support to Ukraine throughout the coming year to aid its quest to retake its lost land (and possibly beyond).
To top it all off, Zelensky then expressed confidence afterward that Trump would follow through on his clear interest in allowing American companies to build air defense missiles (and probably other arms) in Ukraine, thus raising the stakes even more if Russia strikes these facilities. Of course, it will take time for the US to replenish its arsenal of missiles after the Third Gulf War, but the writing is on the wall and it reads that Trump 2.0 is preparing to intensify the conflict in Ukraine.
Specifically, its E2DE strategy is expected to closely follow what was described by the Wall Street Journal last fall and analyzed here at the time, namely to help Ukraine bypass Russian drone power, secondary sanctions, and destabilize Russia. To that end, the House and Senate plans would strengthen Ukraine’s strike force (including long-range ballistic missiles), while Trump’s threat of sanctions would deal with the second part. This combination could lead to unrest within Russia.
To be clear, that last stage is unlikely to happen as the divided Russian people remain united due to a good understanding of the inherent problems of this conflict in relation to its main goal of “criminalizing” their civilizational state, and they do not tend to protest much. Nevertheless, the US is still preparing to try anyway, hoping that it will at least generate enough disapproval of the status quo for the ruling United Russia party to be forced into a coalition after the upcoming Duma elections in September.
Looking ahead, the foundation is quickly being established for Trump 2.0 to do next year everything about Russia, and it is possible that the Democrats will retake the Congress or at least one of its chambers after the November midterms can do this. If Russia does not meet its goals before that happens or terminates a suitable agreement by then, there will be no realistic chance of any such agreement until 2029 at the earliest, meaning that only victory or defeat is possible before that date. The clock is ticking.
