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Trump in China: 黑頭? | Econbrowser

President Trump’s many compliments of President Xi. Not so much for Xi. I can describe this as a tough talk from the US side.

As for the things brought to the conference: Nothing is confirmed from the Chinese side. Perhaps the purchase of 200 Boeing aircraft – even less than the expected 300. Is it possible? A trade deal? Tax cuts on China’s part? Soybean buying high? There are no details.

In response to President Xi’s comments about Taiwan (as noted by the NYT, in a Chinese reading):

“The Taiwan issue is a very sensitive issue in China-US relations,” Mr Xi said, according to an official summary of his remarks to Mr Xi. Trump was released by Xinhua, China’s state news agency. If Chinese concerns about Taiwan are “handled properly,” he added, relations between Beijing and Washington can remain stable.

“If they are not handled properly, the two countries will collide or collide, which puts the entire US-China relationship in a very dangerous situation,” said Mr. Xi. “The US must be very careful in handling the Taiwan issue.”

President Trump did not commit to defending Taiwan (as President Biden did four times). Just a reminder, here is the DoD assessment of the PRC’s Eastern Theater, with most of the forces dedicated to Taiwan.

Source: DoD, Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Development of the People’s Republic of China, 2025 (December 23, 2025).

Regarding the economic significance of the United States, CRS (2026) summarizes the key points:

Taiwan by the United States’ 5th-largest trading partner ($256.1 billion in total merchandise trade), 9th-the largest export market ($54.7 billion), and 5th-the largest source of import (201.4 billion), according to 2025 US data (and when the European Union is considered as one trading partner). The US trade deficit with Taiwan reach $146.7 billion by 2025. US agricultural exports to Taiwan by 2025 it was $4.3 billion. By 2024, US services are shipping to Taiwan was $13.7 billion, and Taiwan’s services exports to the United States were $13.2 billion.

Taiwan’s exports to the United States have been growing as firms shifted production and eliminated shipments away from the PRC and strong US demand for semiconductors and electronics. Between 2018 and 2025, Taiwan’s exports to the United States grew by 341% while US exports Taiwan increased by 75%. By 2025, Taiwan’s US exports to increase by 73% while US exports Taiwan up 29% on 2024 levels.

By 2024, US direct investment stocks Taiwan was $20.1 billion, and Taiwan’s direct investment stock in the United States was $14.8 billion, according to the BEA. (The data does not include investments made through Hong Kong and overseas tax jurisdictions.) Taiwan is the largest holder of foreign exchange reserves, with reserves of $604.5 billion as of January 2026. Taiwan be 10th-The largest foreign owner of US Treasuries with $310.6 billion in assets as of December 2025.

CRS also casually points out:

Semiconductors: About 90% of the world’s advanced chips are made in Taiwan.

For a skeptical assessment of the centrality of Taiwan’s semiconductor production to US (and global) economic interests, see this article. As a shock follower there were (relatively minor) supply chain problems after the Great East Japan Earthquake (CRS, 2011).

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