Yves here. Given how inept the Trump Administration has proven to be, a credible case that the US National Defense Strategy document is misleading is more likely the result of self-delusion (or the US electorate) than an attempt to manipulate allies and rivals. In a new interview with Daniel Davis, Jeremy Scahill describes the surprise of Iranian officials when they saw the damning case of Dunning Kruger’s effect on the entire Trump team.
This document was full of contradictions, for example, showing the plan that the US is focused on the center of the country, which means that the action against China will be to reduce its influence in places like Panama and not around the world. Yet it was Trump 1.0 who declared an economic war on China using tariffs and trying to reduce Huawei’s market share in the US and other countries, and now he is taking on the unfair task of trying to beat China to AI and Silicon Valley hucksters as world champions.
Generally, a strategy paper uses a clumsy, chest-pounding style. Strategic planning documents for competent organizations are great at clearly articulating consistent internal goals and how they can be achieved, not mostly empty directives instead.
One could argue that the US is dishonest about its intentions. Besides false-good/vassal-friendly framing, that’s not as true as one might think. Brian Berletic has long argued that Trump represents the continuity of American policy. Berletic regularly highlights key US/policy papers that have served as a roadmap for US foreign policy.
By Jomo Kwame Sundaram, who was a professor of economics, was the Assistant Secretary General of the United Nations for Economic Development, and received the Wassily Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Thought and Kuhaneetha Bai Kalaicelvan, and Nurina Malek, who graduated from economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, is currently at the Jomo Original Research Institute at the Jomo Research Institute.
The January 2026 US National Defense Strategy (NDS) departs significantly from its predecessors, including Trump’s first term. Is it intentionally misleading? Or is real policy, including war, driven by other things?
National Defense Strategy
The 34-page NDS begins with the assertion: “For too long, the US Government has neglected – even refused – to put the American people and their legitimate interests first”.
Similar to the recent National Security Strategy (NSS), released by Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Marco Rubio in December 2025, the NDS says it is about putting ‘America First’.
Both documents promise that it will be ‘no longer business as usual’. They say they are changing decades of tactics, which are thought to help the country. Unlike previous US military programs, the NDS is full of vague rhetoric and eschews foreign intervention.
But in the first year of Trump 2.0 alone, the US bombed ten countries, threatened at least four more, all in the Americas. Despite little mention in both documents, the US-Israeli war in Iran resumed on February 28!
In Europe
The NDS says the US is reducing its direct military role in Europe but still wants to have an impact.
It promises to remain central to NATO “even as we balance the US force posture and operations in the European theater” to meet US priorities.
Noting that “Russia will remain a persistent but manageable threat to NATO’s eastern members for the foreseeable future”, the NDS insists that NATO allies must “play a greater role in the common defense of Europe”.
The NDS blows hot and cold on Europe’s strong support for Ukraine’s Zelensky, assuming that the military presence on NATO’s borders with Ukraine will be reduced.
Many European allies complain that the Trump administration has created a ‘security vacuum’ by leaving Europe to face Russia with uncertain US support.
They also complain about Secretary Pete Hegseth’s insistence on “credible options to ensure US military and commercial access to key territory”. The NDS emphasizes more than reaching Greenland and the Panama Canal.
In the days released after Trump said he had “an outline of a future agreement” on Arctic security with NATO chief Mark Rutte, he insisted it guarantees “full access” for the US to Greenland, a longtime NATO ally, Denmark.
However, Danish officials insisted that formal negotiations had not yet begun. Trump also threatened European countries that oppose his Greenland plan with tariffs.
Western Hemisphere
The NDS supports the NSS and the ‘Donroe doctrine’ which focuses on the Western Hemisphere, considering the Americas as the US’s rear.
In his January Davos speech, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney noted that recent US actions undermine established international standards.
The NDS was released three days later, after a week of tensions between the White House and its Western allies. Cooperation with American countries, including Canada, is conditional, “to ensure that they respect and do their part to protect our shared interests”.
It warns the US will “actively and courageously defend American interests throughout the Western Hemisphere. And when they don’t, we will stand ready to take direct, decisive action that clearly advances US interests.”
Trump announced that the US should take back Panama and its Canal, accusing the government of letting China go. Later, however, Trump became more confused about ‘rolling back’ both the country and the canal.
Many also question Trump’s intentions to kidnap Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, apparently to be tried on drug charges in the US.
Asia-Pacific
The previous NDS, issued in 2022 under then-President Joe Biden, had considered China the biggest threat to the US. Biden also welcomed Trump’s Indo-Pacific alliance 1.0 to get around China.
In contrast, the new NDS describes China as the established power in the Indo-Pacific region that only needs to be deterred from dominating the US and its allies.
The goal is “not to dominate China; and it is not to strangle or humiliate it… This does not require regime change or other existential struggle… President Trump wants stable peace, fair trade, and respectful relations with China”.
The NDS even proposes a “wide range of military-to-military communications” with its Chinese counterparts! The U-turn followed the administration’s withdrawal from its threatened tit-for-tat escalation after China’s successful retaliation.
Biden’s 2022 NDS promised the US would “support Taiwan’s asymmetric defense”. The new NDS offers no such assurances to China’s sovereign state, which Beijing has warned will take it by force if necessary.
The NDS also calls for a “sharp change – in approach, focus, and tone”, insisting that US allies must take responsibility for fighting against adversaries such as China, Russia and North Korea.
It insists that, “South Korea is able to take the primary responsibility of deterring North Korea with the critical but limited support of the US”.
Federal Expenditure Reduction
Like Trump, the new NDS wants allies to pay more for US ‘defense’.
It is similar to his frequent criticism of his allies for using previous administrations to fund their own defense and not appreciating US protection.
But the terms of such submission remain vague and arbitrary, even looting and corruption. The Gulf monarchies may now regret their generous offering to the president, apparently of no avail so far.
The Trump administration’s allies, the Netanyahu-led war on Iran, and the ongoing US-led efforts to ‘contain’ China suggest that both documents provide poor guidance for knowing and understanding, let alone anticipating, US policies abroad.
