Yves here. By the standards of world leaders, Putin is forthcoming, goes to great lengths to explain his position, and often makes statements that contradict the truth. So it’s often best to start by taking his word for it and asking yourself about falsehoods of omission as opposed to definite falsehoods.
And as we have seen with the way Putin has used the Special Military Operation, now angering even members of his own Security Council and ordinary Russians in the position of mismanaging Ukraine, he is aware of the contradiction. At first, Putin’s stance reminded me of the scene in the movie Elizabeth, when the Queen’s advisers are urging him to invade Spain.
Actress Cate Blanchette added, “I don’t like wars. They have uncertain outcomes.”
Remember, that doesn’t mean that the European countries that have gone astray can’t take a measure that will force Putin to do something, like attacking Kaliningrad. But in his new report from Moscow, Alexander Mercouris not only said that the city was not only peaceful and seemed prosperous but also that he was the only person among the many he has worked with so far to reveal the drone attack.
By Andrew Korybko, an American political analyst based in Moscow who focuses on the transition of the global system to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Originally published on his website
In his words, talk of Russia attacking NATO is “not just nonsense; it’s offensive.”
Several top “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” (NRPR) campaigners raised the alarm last month about Russia’s alleged plans to attack NATO, fueled by leading hawk Sergey Karaganov and Russia’s Ambassador to the OSCE Dmitry Polyanskiy broadcasting his scandalous speech. Readers can review examples of their warnings here, here, here, here, and here. So the regular NRPRs are preparing for what would in that case have been the start of World War III if it had happened.
It obviously didn’t happen and probably won’t, however, judging by Putin’s response when he was recently asked about these alleged plans during a meeting with foreign journalists. In his words, “Why would Russia attack Europe or go to war with NATO? What would be the purpose? As I have said before, these claims are not just nonsense. In my opinion, they are a deliberate provocation designed to create the perception of a threat that does not really exist.”
Putin then explained that “The goal is to persuade their people to increase defense spending and, as a first step, to pay for the regime that seized power in Kiev. That, I believe, is the real meaning. It’s not just nonsense; it’s offensive. However, what surprises me is that some people in European countries seem to believe it. It hurts.”
Not only “some people in European countries” “seem to believe that”, but his main hawk advocates this policy and it has recently been greatly promoted by the top promoters of the NRPR, most of whom can be described as “close to the country” due to the presentation of the platform by funded media, attendance at state-organized conferences, and/or state tours. So regular NRPRs are left wondering if Putin is telling the truth or “thinking about the West”.
It is always best to reverse what Putin himself says in such cases whenever confusion arises, caused by top NRPR promoters practicing so-called “Potemkinism”, or the creation of “different facts” about Russian interests and policy for “strategic purposes” (whatever they are). The most famous example is that Putin is an anti-Zionist who is secretly allied with Iran against Israel despite being a proud philo-Semite all his life as evidenced by his many quotes so far from the Kremlin’s official website.
Therefore, although it would not be fair to describe the brutal Karaganov as a “provocateur” in the spirit of how Putin condemned such people who advocated Russia to attack NATO, he nevertheless strongly denied them to hawks like him and the high-ranking NRPR promoters who spoke softly of his speech. That said, Russian foreign intelligence did indeed warn last month that their country could launch retaliatory strikes against Latvia if Ukraine launches drones from there, which should be taken seriously.
That is completely different than what Karaganov has been pushing for, which is a first strike against NATO that could easily lead to World War III, and it is important for ordinary NRPRs to understand this. As Putin himself put it, such talk is “not just nonsense; it’s offensive.” When those on the Russian side do it, regardless of their intentions, they are indirectly “begging [Westerners] to increase defense costs and, as a first step, to pay for the regime that seized power in Kiev. “
