Interpreting Lavrov’s suggestion that India mediate between Iran and the Gulf Kingdoms
Conor here: Lavrov’s talk of India as a possible mediator between Iran and the Gulf Kingdoms is strange on its face, but Moscow is balancing the interests of the growing BRICS regions that are at loggerheads, as well as relations with Washington (whatever was agreed upon in Anchorage) and Tel Aviv.
Rather than being a unified geopolitical or ideological counterweight to the US and its NATO lackeys, the BRICS countries remain unable to produce any unified plan.
Iran and the United Arab Emirates—both BRICS members—are at war and clashed at the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ meeting in India. Saudi Arabia, while seemingly more eager to get out than the UAE, has also been part of that war against Iran.
Although India used to import Iranian oil, it has grown more geographically and politically close to Israel and the Gulf states and has taken an active role in the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor project that seeks to consolidate US-Israeli digital dominance in the region. India is also a member of the US-led Pax Silica club.
It is therefore not surprising that the BRICS failed to condemn the US-Israel war against Iran, which includes the assassination of its top leadership and other war crimes. But it managed to strengthen its commitment to the “BRICS spirit of mutual respect and understanding, equality, solidarity, openness, inclusiveness, and harmony.”
Additionally, as John Helmer points out in his recent post, IMF AID TO UKRAINE – RUSSIA VOTE FORWARD, INDIA ABSTAINS, CHINA VOTE IN FAVOR, AND OTHER SECRETS LAVROV HAS RECENTLY DANCED:
But he did just that:
By showing China in its vote to approve Ukraine’s loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF); and India for its failure to agree to a joint BRICS statement in support of Iran’s defense in a US-Israel war; and for clarity on the US, especially on negotiator Steven Witkoff for his repetition in the Anchorage Formula talks.
Simply put, the BRICS, whatever they were or aspire to be, are a mess. And while the geopolitical chess game continues, there is one constant: The neoliberal vision of markets over people reigns supreme.
By Andrew Korybko, an American political analyst based in Moscow who focuses on the transition of the global system to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Originally published in his website.
Iran trusts Russia, therefore, Russia’s trust in India despite the lies of the opposition may strengthen Iran’s trust in it.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov proposed during a Q&A session after the meeting of BRICS Foreign Ministers in India that the host country should become a long-term mediator between Iran and the Gulf Kingdoms. The context touched him when he was asked about the situation of armed conflict between the two members of this group, Iran and the UAE, to which he responded by placing his proposal because of India’s changing presidency of BRICS and the purchase of large energy from the region.
In his words, “India, in its position as chairman, is directly dependent on oil supply, including this region. Why not offer its good offices, including as a country in charge of BRICS, and invite Iran and the UAE, first of all, to talk to each other and ensure how to prevent enmity.” He proposed this despite the fact that the BRICS have not made a statement on the war, India condemns all attacks by Iran against the Gulf Kingdoms (but not all attacks by US-Israel against Iran), and Pakistan mediates between Iran and the US.
Nevertheless, Lavrov added that “Pakistan is currently helping to establish a dialogue between Iran and the United States. This is aimed at solving an immediate problem – an ongoing problem. In the long run, the role of such a mediator, a mediator between Iran and its Arab neighbors, can be well played by India, given its diplomatic experience and position.” His “long-term” vision of India’s mediation between Iran and the Gulf Kingdoms goes beyond diplomatic processes and needs clarification.
First, the innuendo is that Pakistan’s mediation will not continue in this war, whether it is due to its defense relationship with Saudi’s historical enemies of Iran, which has been an obvious conflict of interest in the eyes of Iran or its reported handling of many Iranian military aircraft are similar to the Saudis’. Pakistan’s close relationship with the US, which has been in place for decades but became even closer last year under Trump 2.0, may also make Iran suspect that it cannot be trusted in “long-term” negotiations.
Be that as it may, critics may respond that the Indian-Emirati “strategic defense partnership” agreed on the same day as Lavrov’s Q&A discredited India in the eyes of Iran as did the “Greater Defense Partnership” with the US from 2016, but there is a big difference between India and Pakistan. Unlike Pakistan, India is a founding member of BRICS and the “Non-aligned Organization” before it, and India also remains Russia’s “special and privileged” strategic partner despite its growing ties with the US.
Iran trusts Russia, therefore, Russia’s trust in India despite lies to the contrary may strengthen Iran’s trust in it and thus lead to the realization of Lavrov’s vision if the political will is there on all sides. On that topic, Saudi Arabia has reportedly floated a non-aggression pact inspired by Helsinki that could be the first step towards fulfilling Russia’s proposal proposed by the Gulf security group, which India could help negotiate. Of course, it may not happen, but it will not be ruled out either.
Even if nothing comes of Lavrov’s proposal, we are still working to reaffirm the “special and privileged” status of the Russian-Indian Strategic Partnership, especially in relation to what it says about India’s overall credibility and diplomatic power vis-à-vis Pakistan. To be clear, Russia-Pakistan relations are better now than at any time in history and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is expected to be in Moscow this summer, but India will always be Russia’s top regional partner.
