As part of the NATO-Ukraine escalation against Russia’s energy infrastructure, on the night of July 17 a Liberian-flagged crude oil tanker was hit twice by drones. A subsequent fire on board forced the vessel to cancel its call at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Black Sea terminal.
The CPC is a 1,510-kilometer oil pipeline that connects Kazakhstan’s oil fields in the Caspian Sea with the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, and brings about 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports to the world market. Its operations have been disrupted at various points during the war by Ukrainian attacks on Russian pumping stations and drone strikes on the CPC loading station.
Ukraine denies involvement in Novorossiysk attack. Interestingly, not only the Western majors have ownership stakes in CPC but this particular tank that was hit by the drones was leased by ExxonMobil, according to Reuters. The attack comes on the heels of another Chevron chartered vessel being hit two weeks ago.
And here’s the CPC ownership structure, courtesy of BlackSea Energy & Commodities:
Attacking the CPC is nothing new for NATO-Ukraine. Back in April Moscow accused Kyiv of attacking the terminal with drones, which may have caused a planned three-day shutdown for maintenance purposes. Last year, following a series of attacks, Kazakhstan demanded that Kiev stop its aggression at the pipeline loading zone.
Yet despite the best efforts of the Ukrainian people, the CPC Terminal in Novorossiysk handled a record 70.52 million tons of crude oil last year, an increase of 7 million tons from the previous year.
CPC brings a little more than one percent of the world’s oil to market but has a major role in other countries. According to BlackSea Energy & Commodities:
The CPC pipeline is not only important for Kazakhstan but also plays an important role in oil stability in the world. At its peak, it transports nearly 1.4 million barrels per day to global markets, supplying major economies in Europe and Asia. This capacity is sufficient to influence global oil prices and reduce supply disruptions, positioning CPC as a stabilizing force in international energy markets.
Kazakhstan Says Thank You?
Kazakhstan is heavily dependent on CPC for oil exports, and more than 80% of its crude is transported by pipeline.
However, despite the NATO-Ukraine attack on its economic path, Kazakhstan continues to approach the West with open arms and damage its relations with Russia.
Kazakhstan now builds factories for conventional NATO shells and last year signed a military cooperation program with Türkiye. They followed it up with an April agreement with Türkiye to allow the movement of military equipment and personnel. Such agreements are not popular in Moscow and Beijing, as Turkey is a member of NATO and plays a role in the deployment of CIA Islam. Kazakhstan now has military intelligence cooperation, joint defense industry projects, drone production, and joint military exercises with Ankara.
Kazakhstan and US companies recently signed artificial intelligence agreements worth $10 billion.
Kazakhstan is part of a corrupt deal to enrich Trump and Lutnick’s offspring and possibly get America’s hands on vast quantities of Kazakh tungsten, an important mineral that is in short supply because China is dismantling the US war machine.
At the end of last year at the 12th Conference of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan agreed to deepen cooperation in many areas, including trade and goods-which will put aside Russia and increase cooperation with the EU-and defense cooperation, including joint military exercises.
Kazakhstan is also doing its part to stifle Russian wheat exports. The NATO-Ukraine offensive in the Sea of Azov is forcing Russian wheat exporters to consider more expensive alternatives just as new crops hit the market. At the same time, Kazakhstan cuts its market for six months.
Over 100,000 views of this false claim.
Kazakhstan has not imposed a full ban on Russian wheat, which has introduced a six-month limit that includes imports from all EAEU members and third countries (Ukraine, China, France, Australia, whoever)…
— Brian McDonald (@BrianMcDonaldIE) July 19, 2026
While McDonald is technically correct, it is important to note that nearly 100% of Kazakhstan’s imported wheat comes from Russia. According to the Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan’s six-month break risks a trade war with Moscow and undermines the Eurasian Economic Union (members: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Armenia, which has been threatening to leave):
The order from Kazakhstan is neutral in the country and saves the supply to authorized processors. But previous countermeasures have often come through plant health laws, certification disputes, and border controls rather than overtly declared retaliation.
The broader problem is within the EAEU…The European Economic Commission can identify obstacles and call for negotiations, but it has struggled to stop national protectionist measures being used when prices or food safety become politically sensitive. Trade disputes now affect goods ranging from food to street food, outside normal market rules…
However, the wheat ban shows how the union works differently. For farmers in northern Kazakhstan, fewer cheap trucks will support crop prices, while millers pay more for rail deliveries. Rail transport will remain free, but the argument about what the EAEU common market should offer is growing harder to contain.
Now many commentators like to point out how the states of Central Asia need to bet and play on all sides, but this seems to be beyond the pale.
And although isolation is nothing more than a few flies in the soup of Russia, when they are taken together with the daily strikes in Ukraine, the problems in Armenia, the problems in the Baltic, the capture of the tanks of the “shadow ships”, other problems in Central Asia and the EAEU, Syria, and the movement of Turkey in the Black Sea and in Central Asia, well, you start to end up with a bowl full of flies.
NATO Lake Shouldn’t Be
Returning to the Black Sea, there is nothing new in NATO’s efforts to turn it into their own little lake. That goal has been around for years. You can go back as far as the Black Sea has been fought for centuries.
And efforts to “contain” Russia have always focused on its access to the sea. Glenn Diesen. A Norwegian political scientist working on Russian foreign policy writes:
Of The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World OrderSamuel Huntington argued:
“However, the most immediate source of Western expansion was technology: the establishment of sea routes to reach distant peoples and the development of military skills to conquer those peoples… do”.
Russia’s economic development was disrupted from the disintegration of Kievan Rus as it cut Russia off from the maritime channels of international trade. “Russia’s return to Europe” and becoming a great power was possible under Peter the Great with access to the Baltic Sea. Russia’s availability since then has depended to some extent on denying Russia reliable access to the sea. …
In Europe, NATO has contributed to increasing US control over the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Arctic. NATO expansion into Bulgaria, Romania and possibly Ukraine aims to turn the Black Sea into a NATO lake.
Yet Project Ukraine, whatever else it might have achieved, failed miserably in that regard. As GIS Reports recently noted, “Russia has held its strongest position in the Black Sea region since 1991 and is poised to strengthen it further.” Oops.
But at least NATO-Ukraine is doing its part for global food security.
1.5 mmt. -29% YOY; -62% compared to July 2024.
That’s SovEcon’s forecast for Russian #wheat exports this July – the lowest since 2017.
Azov/Black Sea disturbances and soft demand drivers. If the shallow water terminals remain closed, this becomes worse in August, when exports… pic.twitter.com/33HPSGNI27— Andrey Sizov (@sizov_andre) July 21, 2026
Ukraine’s grain exports, 90 percent of which typically move through Odessa, are also at a standstill. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, it’s quite a time for the NATO-Ukraine to do its best to kill a third of global wheat supplies. Turkish Gambit We featured an article yesterday from Andrew Korybko describing the fear that Türkiye might test Russia’s resolve by trying stunts like escorting Ukrainian commercial ships or, further down the line, allowing the transit of NATO warships through the Turkish Straits, permission it has thus far denied during the war in Ukraine. Escorting ships would be quite the gambit, even for Erdogan’s Türkiye, as Russia intensifies its blockade of Odessa by hitting ships that try to dock there. And where might they escort them to after the war, as it looks increasingly likely Russia will eventually take all of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast? Moscow also appeared to issue a warning to Türkiye when officials announced on July 17 (the day after Turkish FM Hakan Fidan made the comments about Black Sea security) that the country would restrict stone fruit (peaches, nectarines, apricots, plums, cherry plums, cherries, sour cherries, and olives) imports from five large Turkish exporters. That’s a big hit for the Turkish agricultural sector. From Turkiye Today:
Türkiye ranks among the world’s largest exporters of stone fruit, with shipments worth around $336.6 million in 2025, with Russia accounting for over 40%, or $140.6 million, of the total.On the energy front, nearly half of Türkiye’s oil imports in 2025 came from Russia, and a little less than 40 percent of its natural gas came from Russia. Both of those totals are declining however as Türkiye signs big LNG deals with the US and others and works with Washington to get oil flowing into Türkiye from Iraq. Türkiye would also could lose its status as exporter of Russian gas to Europe at the end of this year due to the EU vow (they really mean it this time!) to completely halt imports of Russian fossil fuels by 2027. Elsewhere, Turkish and US officials continue to insist that the long-running dispute over the Russian S-400 air defense system Türkiye purchased in 2019 is coming to an end. According to Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Levent Gümrükçü, a resolution is at hand, which would see Ankara readmitted to the F-35 fighter jet program and, more importantly, the removal of sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.
