Europe “may be six weeks or more away,” the head of the International Energy Agency on Thursday in a wide-ranging interview with the Associated Press, warning of possible flight cancellations “soon” if oil supplies continue to be blocked by the Iran war.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol painted a sobering picture of the global consequences of what he called “the biggest energy crisis we’ve ever faced,” stemming from the loss of oil, gas and other vital supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
“There used to be a group called ‘Dire Straits.’ It is very difficult now, and it will have a big impact on the world economy. And if it continues, it will be very bad for economic growth and inflation around the world,” he said.
The impact will be “higher fuel (petrol) prices, higher electricity prices, higher electricity prices,” Birol told the AP, speaking from his Paris office overlooking the Eiffel Tower.
The economic pain will be felt unevenly and “the countries that will suffer the most will not be those whose voice is heard the most. It will be especially the developing countries. The poor countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America,” said the Turkish economist and energy expert who has led the IEA since 2015.
But without a resolution to Iran’s war that permanently reopens the Strait of Hormuz, “Everybody will suffer,” he added.
“Some countries may be richer than others. Some countries may have more power than others, but there is no country, no country that cannot face this problem,” he said.
Without the reopening of the waterway, some oil products could dry up, he warned.
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In Europe, “I can tell you soon we will hear news that some of the flights from city A to city B may be canceled due to lack of jet fuel,” he said.
Hormuz charges future risk
Birol spoke out against the so-called “toll booth” system that Iran has used on some ships, allowing them to travel on the road to pay tolls. He said allowing that to be permanent would risk setting a precedent that could be used in other waterways, including the important Malacca Strait in Asia.
“If we change it once, it may be difficult to restore it,” he said. “It will be difficult to have a toll system here, which is used here, but not there.”
“I would like to see oil flow unconditionally from point A to point B,” he said.
Damage to the Persian Gulf’s energy facilities
Birol said that more than 110 oil tankers and more than 15 natural gas carriers are waiting in the Persian Gulf and could help ease the energy crisis if they could escape through the Strait of Hormuz.
“But it’s not enough,” he added.
Even with a peace deal, strikes at power plants mean it could be months before pre-war production levels are restored, he said.
“More than 80 important assets in the area have been damaged. And of these 80, more than one-third are seriously or badly damaged,” he said.
“It would be too optimistic to believe it will be faster,” Birol said. “It will take little by little, little by little, up to two years to get back to where we were before the war.”
© 2026 The Canadian Press
