Election results for CA governor, LA mayor may go slow. Don’t expect ‘instant gratification’

It took three weeks to call the highly competitive 2022 US House race in California’s Central Valley, and the result came down to a few hundred votes.

Two years later, state Sen. Laura Richardson waited 17 days to be declared the winner of a hotly contested race in South Los Angeles.

That same year, an unprecedented second-place tie in Northern California forced a recount that took nearly two months to settle.

California – and especially Los Angeles County – is notorious for slow election counting. But Tuesday’s primary could test the patience of even the most popular political figures as some of the top races, including the governor of California and the mayor of LA, remain tight-lipped.

“We’re trying to keep people calm,” said Tracy Hernandez, executive director of the New California Coalition, a nonpartisan group working on policy solutions. “Expect ignorance.”

Experts who spoke to The Times said the results of some of the most closely watched contests will likely be unclear Tuesday night, although many races may be called by then. Most estimate that the candidates for California governor and LA mayor are unlikely to be confirmed until Wednesday or Thursday, although there are several factors that could extend that process longer.

California’s primaries identify the top two vote-getters in each race — regardless of party preference — and advance to the November general election.

What is taking so long?

Remote vote counting in California is primarily a result of more ways voters can cast their ballots in the state, which election officials say increases access and participation — but increases the time after that process to verify and verify votes.

In particular, the rise and popularity of universal mail voting has created additional steps to count and verify votes. Unlike in-person voting, where verification occurs beforehand, incoming votes must be checked and signed. If a voter’s signature is missing or does not match the signature on file, California law requires election officials to notify that voter and give them an opportunity to correct the problem, which can also delay the process.

Ballots are also accepted up to seven days after the election if they are marked before or on election day, so in very close races, it can take days to get all the valid votes.

But election watchers around the world are clear that even though the results are coming in slowly, they do not inherently indicate problems or fraud – in fact, they say the opposite.

“We allow people many different ways to vote, and because of that it takes a long time to count all the votes,” said Jessica Levinson, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University. “And it should be. … It’s an argument in favor of making sure the system works properly — not quickly.”

“It’s healthy,” Hernandez said, “and it should lead to more Californians being able to vote.”

LA County is known for its slow election results, but experts say that’s because of how many votes we carry.

“There is no unit, there is no counting of votes [system] anywhere in the country counts more votes and more elections than LA County – by far,” said Fernando Guerra, founding director of Loyola Marymount University’s Center for the Study of Los Angeles.

But despite the systemic factors that reduce the results of elections in California and LA County each year, this first season has seen a push for early voting and a high level of undecided voters, both of which are expected to continue to delay the voting, therefore, accepted and confirmed.

Those voting patterns could skew the results of the election results, which county registrars will begin sharing hours after polls close at 8 p.m. Tuesday. The first stages usually include votes received before election day, from mail-in ballots and early voting sites, and then ballots cast on election day.

This year, those early results are likely to change dramatically — despite California’s strong hold — because of messages from the Democratic Party that it is waiting to vote because of concerns about a much broader field of candidates, said Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin and a former district attorney.

He pointed to the last LA mayoral election, which initially showed developer Rick Caruso leading Mayor Karen Bass, before late voters and mail-in ballots began to be counted. After seeing the results for about 24 hours, Caruso agreed to race Bass on Wednesday night.

“We have to accept that the first votes counted are not the most representative,” said Levinson.

So … when will we know?

There is no concrete timeline for when the races will be called.

The Associated Press has become the gold standard for calling election results — the Times often relies on its expertise — and such announcements often come before all the votes are counted. But the media company only does so when it is “absolutely convinced that the race is won — loosely defined as the point at which the trailblazers no longer have a way to win,” according to an article about its process.

Several experts who spoke to The Times said there is a good chance that the candidates for governor and mayor of LA will not be confirmed by the end of Tuesday night, even if there is a front-runner.

“It could be a cliff-hanger that doesn’t fill the whole night,” Levinson said. “Maybe we can look at days and not hours.”

Technically, local election officials have 30 days to process and verify all votes, although it rarely takes that long to announce a winner.

There has been a growing push, however, to expedite election results — without reducing voting options or security — to gain support from Gov. Gavin Newsom and many at the State Capitol. Last year, lawmakers passed a new law that calls for ballots to be released on the 13th day after polls close, though it doesn’t change the 30-day deadline for official results and provides several exceptions.

“We have access, accuracy, security — now the challenge is to maintain all those values ​​while speeding up the count,” said Kim Alexander, head of the nonpartisan California Voter Foundation.

Even though long-form vote tallies don’t show fraud or errors — despite some politicians peddling such lies — he pointed to research that found voter confidence declines as election results drag on.

He called it a “false choice” that the vote would not be done properly and quickly: “We can fix it and do it quickly, and we should,” said Alexander. He called for policy changes and more funding to help speed up and streamline the electoral process.

But others say the long-term effects are a product of a functioning democracy that is likely here to stay.

“People have to be patient,” said Guerra. “Instant gratification doesn’t have to rule your life.”

And that is something that candidates have to deal with.

We are seeing more and more ‘Keep hope alive!’ campaign meetings rather than election groups,” Levinson said of the late-night gatherings. “Maybe ‘campaign watch group’ would be a better term than ‘victory party.'”