American intelligence agencies are looking at what Iran would do if Trump declared victory
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U.S. intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would respond if U.S. President Donald Trump were to declare victory each in the two-month war that has killed thousands and become a political scandal at the White House, two U.S. officials and a person familiar with the matter said.
The intelligence community analyzes this question and others at the request of senior administration officials.
The goal is to understand Trump’s potential withdrawal from a conflict that some officials and advisers worry could contribute to deep Republican losses in midterm elections later this year, according to sources.
Although no decision has been made – and Trump can postpone military action – a quick drawdown would ease political pressure on the president, as it would leave behind an emboldened Iran that could eventually rebuild its nuclear and missile programs and threaten US allies in the region.
The sources spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters.
US President Donald Trump told reporters ‘don’t rush me,’ when asked about the Iran timeline.
It is not clear when the intelligence community will complete its work, but it has previously analyzed the possible reaction of Iranian leaders to the American declaration of victory.
In the days following the first bombing campaign in February, intelligence agencies assessed that if Trump were to declare victory and the US were to draw down its forces in the region, Iran might consider it a victory, one of the sources said.
If instead Trump says the US has won but maintains a heavy military presence, Iran may see it as a negotiating ploy, but not one that could lead to an end to the war, the source said.
Liz Lyons, director of the CIA’s public affairs office, said in a statement after the story was published that the agency “is not accustomed to scrutiny from the intelligence community.”
The CIA declined to answer specific questions from Reuters about its current work in Iran.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the US is still engaging the Iranians in negotiations and “will not be in a rush to make a bad deal.”
“The president will only enter into an agreement that puts US national security first, and makes it clear that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon,” he said.
Political expenses
Opinion polls show that the war is deeply unpopular with Americans. Only 26 percent of respondents to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week said the military campaign was worth the cost, and only 25 percent said it made the US safer.
Three people familiar with White House discussions in recent days described Trump as well aware of the political price he is paying his party.
Twenty days after Trump announced a ceasefire, multiple talks have failed to fully reopen the economically important Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has blocked by attacking ships and laying mines in the narrow waterway.
Choking shipping lanes that carry about 20 percent of the world’s crude oil have driven up global energy costs and the price of gas at the pumps. Iran’s ability to disrupt trade gives it great leverage against the United States and its allies.
The decision to reduce the presence of the US military in the region, accompanied by the corresponding lifting of the embargo, will ultimately reduce the price of gasoline.
However, so far the two sides seem far from any agreement.
Last weekend, Trump canceled a trip that would have seen his special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner meet with Iranian officials in Pakistan, telling reporters on Saturday that it would take “a lot of time” and that if Iran wanted to talk “all they have to do is make a phone call.”
Rory Johnston, the founder of Commodity Context, says that the pressure in the world economy gives Iran the strength to demand security guarantees from the US Johnston and says that the drop in the price of commodities such as oil and gas will be delayed even after the flow of ships in the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal.
‘Too much’ domestic pressure
Various options for war remain on the table, with renewed airstrikes on Iran’s military and political leaders among them, according to a separate person familiar with the administration.
One of the US officials and another person familiar with the negotiations said, however, that the most desirable of those options – such as a global attack on the Iranian country – seems much smaller than what happened a few weeks ago.
A White House official described the domestic pressure on the president to end the war as “enormous.”
One of the sources said Iran has taken advantage of the ongoing ceasefire to dig up explosives, weapons, drones and other items buried by US and Israeli bombing in the early weeks of the conflict.
As a result, the tactical costs of resuming full-scale war are arguably higher now than in the early days of the ceasefire, which began on April 8.
