Yves here. John Helmer carefully reads Chinese media statements and concludes that Xi will not meet with Trump if the US does not negotiate with Iran and instead engages in active activities. It’s unclear whether continued blocking alone, with no other attacks in play, would be a sufficient escalation. I wouldn’t guess, as Helmer makes it clear that Xi doesn’t want to be seen as a tacit supporter of the US war in the Gulf. If the US simply extended its break with the Trump-Xi summit, and immediately resumed strikes, it may look like Trump has successfully snubbed Xi. Chinese viewers are encouraged to moderate.
By John Helmer, Russia’s longest-serving foreign correspondent, and the only western journalist to direct his own independent bureau without national or commercial ties. Helmer has also been a professor of political science, and an adviser to heads of government in Greece, the United States and Asia. He is the first and only member of the US president (Jimmy Carter) to settle in Russia. Originally published on Dances with Bears
It was the British prime minister, Harold Wilson, who once said that a week is a long time in politics. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who holds the highest ministerial rank as a member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China, recently demonstrated that five hundred milliseconds is a long time in politics.
Since i best photos show – recorded by a China Central Television (CCTV) camera crew in Beijing on Wednesday – that little moment passed as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was greeted by Wang before they sat down with their delegation to talk. I the top line it shows Araghchi approaching Wang, shaking his hand, and leaning his head forward. Wang, responding, steps forward, and the two men embrace. Then they parted, the man smiling at the other.
I the second line the image repeats the hug, a few milliseconds after it begins. Araghchi had planned a hug in advance, gesturing to Wang with a smile. Wang didn’t return his smile until the kiss started. Wang’s thin smile widened as he stepped back, still holding on to Araghchi’s right arm and saying something in the language they spoke, English.
I the third line The photo shows the two officers directing, without smiling, for the cameras to shake hands. This is the photo used by the international media to show the meeting – the first of this high level since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran on February 28.
Be careful, though – the footage sequence, captured by slowing down and snapping the images frame by frame shortly after they were first released, was edited, first by CCTV and then by many western media outlets. Between the second and third seconds of the first film, Araghchi’s left arm and hand went up to Wang’s shoulder as they moved closer to their embrace. However, CCTV recorded the hug: in the images later broadcast by many international media, the hug disappeared completely, replaced by a formal handshake. The cut occurs in about 500th millisecond.
Not everyone has written off the Araghchi-Wang hug. The Turkish news agency Anadolu, for example, continued to broadcast.
What happened took Wang, the Politburo, and President Xi Jinping seven full days to decide.
This is the time since April 30, when Wang revealed that he had just spoken by phone with the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. To Rubio, Wang announced that the Taiwan Strait is more important to China nationally than the Strait of Hormuz, and that if President Donald Trump agrees, he and President Xi will enjoy their grand meeting on May 14 in an event to celebrate “US-China relations… manage tensions to gather the results of high-level cooperation and seek strategic stability.”
That there, declared Wang Xi, was a condition for Trump’s arrival in Beijing. “The Taiwan question is about China’s interests and is a serious threat to China-US relations,” Wang said. “The US side must honor its obligations and make the right choice.” As for the war in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump’s war against Iran, Wang left that to his last line, which is quite simple: “The two sides also exchanged views on the situation in the Middle East and other issues.”
Wang’s announcement was published on the evening of April 30, local time. For more analysis, read this.
Wang’s ministry then became silent. The ministry’s last daily meeting was held just before Wang’s interview with Rubio last Thursday. There was no mention of him in the Iran war briefing or Trump’s conference call. The department then officially closed to celebrate the national May holiday from Friday, May 1, until Wednesday, May 5.
When the service returned to the daily briefing on Thursday, May 6, it was late at night and Wang-Araghchi’s meeting was over. Asked what happened, the news anchor replied: “They discussed bilateral views and international and regional issues of mutual interest. More information on this will be released soon. Please stay tuned.”
State news reporters representing France, Russia and US propaganda organizations – Associated Press, Bloomberg, Reuters, New York Times – asked for China’s response to President Trump’s threats of military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions against Chinese purchases and shipments of Iranian oil tankers.
Asked to confirm Trump’s attendance at meetings with Xi on May 14-15, the official response appeared non-committal. “Do you have any details about that visit, like when it will happen? Lin Jian: Please stay tuned.” Bloomberg asked the question; did not report the response. And you don’t have AP, Reuters, or New York Times which you all heard.
That answer is not a commitment. It is now Wang and Xi’s condition to Trump – and this marks a change in China’s policy towards the Iran war. “China believes,” said Wang’s spokesman, “that the complete end to the war is very urgent, a return to war must be avoided and adherence to negotiations is very important. China supports Iran in protecting its sovereignty and national security.”
If Trump “returns to fighting” and “does not stick to negotiations”, Xi says that Trump will not be allowed to stay in Beijing next week. China will not allow it to be Trump’s cover for attacking Iran, as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi allowed himself to approve the Israeli-American war with Iran in the Knesset on February 25, two days before the start of the war. Wang is changing the meaning of what he told Rubio on April 30.
Of China Daily text report of the Wang-Araghchimeeting, the photo was of a handshake, not a hug. That wasn’t the only editor’s shortcut. I China Daily The text left out Wang’s criticism of the US-Israeli war since February 28 as “illegal”.
Wang’s spokesman said later: “China believes that the complete end to the war is very urgent, should avoid going back to fighting and stick to the dialogue is very important. China supports Iran in protecting its national sovereignty and security and praises Iran’s determination to seek normal ways to solve political problems and normal political ways. In the Strait is a common concern of the international community, China hopes that the parties concerned will respond to the strong call of the international community countries as soon as possible that the countries of the Gulf and the Middle East need to take their own future.
“Fighting must be avoided … sticking to negotiations is very important” – this is now China’s condition if Trump wants to hold his big meeting and, as he promised on April 15: “President Xi will give me a big, fat hug, when I get there.”
China has recently shown that it is going – to Iran before the US.
Wang’s spokesman “recommend[ation of] Iran’s determination to seek a political solution through diplomatic means” refers to a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding that Israeli-American and Saudi media outlets are reporting as in current talks with the White House through Pakistani mediation.
Wang also told the Gulf Arab sheikhdoms not to rely on the promises and arms of America or Israel, India or Pakistan for their future security. But not only the Gulf sheikhs – “China advocates that the countries of the Gulf and the Middle East must take their fate into their own hands.”
Araghchi tweeted a summary of his meeting with Wang at 4:13 pm – it’s unclear whether this was Beijing time or Tehran time. If the former, it was a few hours after the meeting ended but before Wang’s spokesman made his press release. If it was Tehran time, Araghchi would report as soon as the meeting with Wang ended.
Source: https://x.com/araghchi/status/2052013939936956586
Araghchi confirmed the meaning of the hug: “The Iranian side trusts the Chinese side”, he said, “and expects the Chinese side to continue to play a positive role in promoting peace and preventing war, and support the establishment of a new post-war regional structure that can link development and security.” That “regional structure” identified by Araghchi was first clarified in the “Concept of the Collective Security of the Persian Gulf”, presented in detail on August 21, 2021.
Source: https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1466420/ President Xi’s four-point proposal for Gulf security was presented publicly after a meeting in Beijing on April 14 of this year with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi. The four points are peaceful coexistence; national sovereignty; international rule of law; and “balancing” of development and security according to a Chinese scheme: “Security is the precondition for development, and development is the guarantee of security. All parties should work to create a favorable environment for the development of Middle Eastern and Gulf states and inject positive energy into the region. China is willing to share the opportunities of Chinese modernization with Middle Eastern and Gulf countries, and to cultivate deeper soil for regional development and security.”
The Russian plan was repeated last month by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Moscow: “We reaffirm the importance of the well-known step of Russia to harmonize the concept of security in the Persian Gulf through the establishment of dialogue between all the countries on the coast – the Arab countries and the Islamic Republic of Iran – with the participation and assistance of foreign players who can sincerely contribute to the realization of the interest.”
The Russian Foreign Ministry’s words “submissive” and “honest” are meant to exclude Trump, his interlocutors Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and the Israelis.
The spokesman of the Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov repeated yesterday: “We always strive for the resolution of the disagreements that exist in this most important region of the world through political and diplomatic means, taking into account the interests of all states. The Persian Gulf.”
