Yves here. The fact that at least Europe that knows about climate change has been almost entirely caught up in the most recent heat waves shows a lack of thought and planning. Developing countries like those in Africa are much closer to the edge of life than rich Western countries. The impact of being hit harder by food shortages, droughts, major floods and other adverse events means they have a lot of coping skills. The irony here is that rich countries know, or should know, that at least a high El Niño combined with a huge increase in fertilizer and diesel costs will cause famine and in poor countries, starvation and mass migration. High food and fuel costs fueled the Arab Spring uprisings. Elites in wealthy nations are so removed from the hardships and humiliations already inflicted on low-income and middle-class families that they don’t realize how many communities and even countries are on the brink of serious instability.
But expecting elites to expend effort to repair damage they don’t believe is beyond their reach is too much, isn’t it? But we are still running the post because it contains ideas that can be used at the local level.
Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, Professor of Climate Change, Food Systems and Health and Director of The Lancet Countdown in Africa, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and Mendy Ndlovu, Agrometeorologist and researcher at the Sustainable and Healthy Food Systems – Southern Africa, University of KwaZulu-Natal. Originally published on The Conversation
Weather forecasters announced in June 2026 that El Niño, a cycle that occurs every two to seven years, was forming. It was expected to develop into one of the strongest on record – the “best” El Niño.
El Niño occurs when the Pacific Ocean warms abnormally. It can change weather patterns around the world, often leading to extreme events such as droughts, floods and heat waves.
In southern Africa, it causes a hot, dry climate. In the last cycle this pushed 18 million people into starvation.
In eastern and central Africa, it brought heavy rain and floods that destroyed more than 600,000 homes, as well as farms and health services. In West Africa, it reduced harvests, increased food prices and left families struggling with food shortages for years after the event.
A “very good” El Niño is caused by warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Parts of the Pacific are expected to be 3°C warmer than average by the end of 2026.
There have only been three high El Niño events in modern records (since 1982). The most recent, in 2015-16, pushed more than 36 million people in eastern and southern Africa into starvation mode. Results were seen in food and nutrition security, water scarcity, health access and livelihoods.
The prospect of this happening has also caused concern, understandably.
Read more: Africa has been managing climate change for decades – what the rest of the world can learn from
My research has shown that Africa, with high levels of poverty, underdevelopment and weak infrastructure, is highly vulnerable to climate hazards that damage food systems and health.
However, focusing on risk only tells one side of the story.
African countries have spent decades dealing with and adapting to repeated cycles of drought, floods, rainfall variability and food insecurity. The continent has developed valuable experience in managing many difficult situations.
The world needs to pay more attention to the knowledge, processes and adaptation strategies of African societies, institutions and researchers developed through knowledge. As climate impacts intensify around the world, these events provide important lessons for building resilience.
Five Lessons That Won’t Work Hard
1. Preparation is better than no answer: Across Africa, governments, researchers, humanitarian organizations and communities have recognized the importance of taking action before disasters strike. Early warning systems, planning and preparing support can help reduce losses before they become aid emergencies. There are still gaps in early warning systems, but overall, Africa’s Multi-Hazard Early Room and Early Action Situation Room and country systems are getting stronger. Progress is severely slowed due to lack of funding.
At the peak of El Niño, drought, food insecurity, and damage to health systems are severe. Being prepared means that communities can protect their livelihoods and avoid spending all their savings or borrowing money to repay.
2. Native and climate-resistant plants are part of the solution: The future of African agriculture cannot continue to depend entirely on a limited number of staple crops such as maize and wheat which are highly vulnerable to climate stress. My research revealed the potential of neglected and underutilized crops such as sorghum, sorghum, groundnut and cowpea. African societies have long cultivated these plants. They are better adapted to harsh growing conditions than most common plants.
Read more: Africa’s small farmers use bright ideas to adapt to climate change: G20 countries should support their efforts
3. Water, energy, food and health cannot be managed separately: Climate impacts rarely stay in one sector. Drought affects crop production. Reduced yields affect food prices and nutrition. Water scarcity puts pressure on health systems. Power disruptions can affect irrigation, health delivery and economic activity. The effects of El Niño affect agriculture, water access, nutrition and health.
There are connections between water, energy, food, environmental sustainability and health. Because these problems often occur together in Africa, countries have learned that the best solutions are to look together, and not individually.
4. The biggest limitation is finance, not knowledge: Across the continent, researchers, farmers, doctors and institutions have developed ways to prepare for climate risks. More money is needed. Development funds, climate change adaptation grants and concessional funds can help vulnerable countries and communities that cannot borrow on normal market terms to get the money they need for irrigation, health facilities and roads.
Funding is also needed for small farmers to insure their crops and livestock. Governments need money to pay for social protection and transfers. This provides a safety net in the event of a disaster so that families are not forced to sell assets or take their children out of school.
Read more: The climate crisis is a daily occurrence in many African communities: to try and protect it
Many of these solutions are already known and tested. The challenge is to raise the bar. Funding for climate adaptation in Africa remains far below what is needed. The promised money is released slowly, the conditions for receiving it are strict, governments are often required to contribute some of their own money and the accounting systems do not always match the local systems.
This often prevents proven interventions from reaching communities that need them most.
Read more: El Niño disasters: governments know what’s coming, but they’re not ready – that has to change
5. Partnership must replace paternalism: Climate resilience cannot be built through a one-way relationship where solutions are developed elsewhere and delivered to African communities.
Effective resilience depends on local ownership, trusted institutions and the ability of countries and communities to create or adapt solutions to their own circumstances.
Africa needs partnerships built on mutual learning, shared goals and recognition of existing technologies. This means strengthening institutions, increasing capacity, supporting enabling networks and creating flexible and diversified financial systems.
A strong El Niño will also test African systems, institutions and communities. But it can also show that Africa is a source of climate knowledge, adaptation experience and practical solutions developed under the most challenging conditions on Earth.
