Netanyahu’s future is uncertain as Israel begins preparations for national elections
While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu focused on Israel’s “total victory” since the Hamas-led invasion of the country on Oct. 7, 2023, his victory in the next national election is far from certain.
This past week, Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, unanimously approved a bill that will begin to be dismantled in preparation for elections to be held at the end of October.
For some voters, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister could be a key figure and issue in the run-up to the election.
“This government’s policies were the most divisive we’ve ever seen in Israel’s history,” said political commentator and activist Dahlia Scheindlin, a fellow at the Century Foundation, a Tel Aviv-based think tank.
To understand the situation, he points back to October 7 and Israel’s failure to stop the attack, when nearly 1,200 people were killed and about 250 others were captured, according to Israeli statistics.
After October 7, Netanyahu promised “total victory” over Hamas in Gaza. It hasn’t happened yet.
The Gaza Health Ministry says more than 70,000 Palestinian civilians have been killed, Hamas remains armed and Israeli forces remain entrenched. This month, Netanyahu said Israel now controls more than 60 percent of the enclave.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that the escalation of the war against Hamas is the fastest way to victory, but he says that Israel is losing the information war. Protests continue against his escalation in Gaza amid fears for hostages and civilians.
Domestic problems, such as Israeli anger over Oct. 7, Netanyahu’s concession to far-right parties in his coalition, changes in democratic institutions and the judiciary and his ongoing trial on corruption charges, caused him to poll below 50 percent, Scheindlin said.
“For people who didn’t like him, they were against him, yes, October 7 made that worse,” he said.
“His government, if the elections were held today, probably, because of the large number of votes, it would not be able to form a coalition with the existing parties.”
Netanyahu and his leadership have long received support and criticism.
His supporters see him as a strong leader, unafraid to use force to reshape the Middle East in Israel’s favor.
Ccritics are quick to point to his corruption case and the failure of the Netanyahu government to stop Oct 7.
Strikes by Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon are strengthening supporters.
“What matters is how you take care of the residents,” said Israel Sabag, who owns a small spice shop in Jerusalem’s busy market.
“I don’t really think he is doing bad things. He is just protecting us. If there is a need for war, he chooses war, he is not afraid of war.”
Just outside Sabag’s shop, Idan Saidov and her husband agree.
“Yes, finish,” he said of The US and Israel are at war with Iran.
“If we don’t have Bibi, we are nothing.”
Such sentiments are unusual in Israel, Scheindlin said, and should give Netanyahu a bump.
“People like the image of Israel taking a step back, showing strength in the Middle East.”
But with the outcome of the war uncertain, and US President Donald Trump seemingly more interested in a negotiated end to the conflict with Iran, many Israelis are watching with trepidation.
Come back from defeat
The first prime minister elected in 1996, Netanyahu has led Israel on and off for more than 18 years. He has come back twice from defeat.
But for some, Netanyahu is too much for the day.
“It’s been too long,” said Lior Nirsky while waiting at a bus stop in Tel Aviv.
Netanyahu has been prime minister all his life, and he says he is angry on October 7.
“I think the biggest disappointment is not taking responsibility for everything that happened.”
Benjamin Netanyahu faces an uncertain future as Israel’s prime minister due to anger on October 7, 2023, attacks, political disputes and ongoing wars, but political experts say he should never be counted out.
Political opponents are building on that frustration and fatigue.
Two former prime ministers – Yair Lapid, who is currently the leader of the Israeli opposition, and Naftali Bennett – founded a new party called Together. Bennett will lead it in the next election.
The party endorses many nationalist policies similar to Netanyahu’s Likud party, including accelerating settlements in the West Bank, where Israel has faced international condemnation.
The latest polls show that the new party is running against Netanyahu’s Likud party.
At the meeting in Tel Aviv, the organizer of the group Lee Levinger said that he believes that many in Israel want the country to continue on its nationalistic path but are tired of being separated from the burden that has come after Netanyahu, including his criminal cases.
“It doesn’t work, not as a country, not as a nation.”
Is remission possible?
Last November, Netanyahu began asking for a pardon for his crimes from the Israeli president. Negotiations are ongoing, in what appears to be a long and controversial process.
It’s not clear what impact that might have on Netanyahu’s electoral strength, or what a renewed war with Iran would mean.
After watching Israeli politics for a long time, Scheindlin is about to learn one thing about Netanyahu.
“I wouldn’t bet on him,” he said.
