The most important thing politicians may need this week is patience.
With many key races expected to be tight, officials are warning that it could take days – perhaps even more than a week – to know the outcome of Tuesday’s primary election.
Here are the key things to watch as the results come in:
From the left; Steve Hilton at the California Republican Convention in San Diego; Tom Steyer campaigning in downtown Santa Ana; and Xavier Becerra in San Diego.
(Los Angeles Times)
1. Fighting for second place
Most polls and pundits say Democrat Xavier Becerra is likely to be the front-runner to replace Gavin Newsom as governor of California.
Until recently, it was assumed that Republican Fox News host Steve Hilton would make another run, especially after being endorsed by President Trump.
But a new poll suggests Hilton is in a tight race for second place with Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer, who spends much of his fortune. If he wins, California could see a competitive Democrat-versus-Democrat general election come November.
Under California election laws, the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party preference.
Hilton is urging Republicans to rally around him to avoid being shut out. His main GOP opponent is Sheriff Chad Bianco of Riverside County.
In the past few months, Hilton and Bianco have led in some polls among a heavily Democratic field, raising fears that Democrats could be locked out of the November general election. But that concern has eased somewhat with Becerra’s rise in the polls.
More to read:
Left to right: Karen Bass on Friday, April 8, 2022; Spencer Pratt on April 16, 2025; Nithya Raman on March 3, 2026.
(Christina House / Los Angeles Times; Jordan Strauss / Invision/AP; Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)
2. Is the mayoral race really a toss-up?
It’s not often that a Los Angeles mayoral race becomes a national story. But that happened this year due to a controversy that few could have predicted.
Former reality TV star Spencer Pratt is the main reason for all the attention, coming from the far right in a very liberal city. Controversial Mayor Karen Bass is the incumbent, with City Councilwoman Nithya Raman running on the left.
UC Berkeley-LA Times poll released last week found a close race with Bass at 26%, Raman at 25% and Pratt at 22% among likely voters. Other polls showed Pratt doing better.
Pratt eclipsed his opponents when it came to social media (and the old media). But is that enough to put him in the running? Bass has a lot of work on his side, and we’ll see if that helps him get out the vote. But Bass is also unpopular, according to polls. Does that give Raman an opening among Democrats who want an alternative?
More to read:
Dan Egelhoff plays with his dog at the “Barbecue, Beer and Ballots” event at the Rep.’s office. Ken Calvert.
(Christina House/Los Angeles Times)
3. Fallout from California revisions
When it comes to congressional elections, this should be a good night for Democrats, by design. That’s because California voters last year approved Proposition 50, which redrew congressional districts in favor of Democrats.
It was part of a national battle for both red and green states designed to help their respective parties gain control of Congress. California’s new maps give Democrats a big advantage in some areas, but it’s not clear how big the win will be. There is significant intra-party fighting in “safe” regions as well.
The Times’ data and photo team identified several races to watch:
- Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) lost his seat in redistricting and is now challenging incumbent Young Kim (R-Anaheim Hills) in the 40th District.
- In San Francisco, several Democratic Party groups are vying to replace House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in the 11th district.
- California’s 48th Congressional District in San Diego and Riverside are traditionally red districts. But longtime Republican Darrell Issa’s sudden retirement and redistricting are playing it up.
- Veteran Rep. Brad Sherman faces a strong challenge from fellow Democrat Jake Levine in the 32nd district.
Further reading:
Want more information about the vote counting process? Times reporter Grace Toohey breaks it down, including how to track your mail-in vote, how races are called and why it’s taking so long.
