Newsom is reluctant to endorse a successor, breaking gridlock in the governor’s race

SACRAMENTO – Gov. Gavin Newsom has deflected questions about the race to succeed him in California for much of the past year.

“You know my situation,” he told reporters last month. “I’m not talking about the governor’s race.”

But with his party at risk of losing the state’s most powerful office, Newsom realizes he may need to step in and endorse one of the Democratic candidates whether he wants to or not.

California Democrats have entered the 2026 gubernatorial race: More candidates, with few policy divisions among them, are vying to replace Newsom. Opinion polls don’t show a clear favorite and Democrats are splitting the vote significantly.

Strong support suggests the possibility that the two Republicans in the race could finish first and second in the June primary and advance to the general election. With that strategic mistake, Democrats could be eliminated from the race in the event that they outnumber Republicans by nearly 2 to 1.

It’s a disaster that everyone saw coming and no Democrat, except maybe Newsom, has the power to stop it, said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego.

“Gavin Newsom’s megaphone is loud enough to be heard throughout the race, leading other prominent members of the party to vote for whoever they choose and vote for someone who, in the end, comes out of the pack,” Kousser said. “This could be the party’s last remaining chance to avoid splitting its vote in June and being shut out in November.”

Endorsing a successor before the primary carries inherent risks and perhaps even more so for Newsom, who is positioning himself as a potential front-runner in the 2028 presidential race. Publicly endorsing a gubernatorial candidate ties Newsom to the outcome of the race and the candidate.

“If it doesn’t work, his endorsement will spread his political weakness and weaken his party at a time when he needs to show his strength,” Kouser said. “But if his intervention saves the team and elevates his successor to a strong public favorite, it will raise his national profile while earning him a close friend in Sacramento.”

Newsom is taking a wait-and-see approach for now, tracking polls to determine if his intervention is needed.

President Trump’s decision to endorse conservative commentator Steve Hilton over the weekend could ease the pressure for Newsom to step on the scale.

Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the two leading Republicans in the race, were leading the field of candidates before the president ran, according to a recent poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies.

If Trump’s support causes support for Hilton to rise and Bianco to fall, there is a good chance that one Democrat and one Republican will make it into the top two in the primaries.

Trump’s support has left Kouser and other California political observers scratching their heads. If a candidate from each party advances to November, the Democrat is expected to win the race easily because of the voter registration advantage.

Until this week, Newsom had been tight-lipped in response to Bianco’s controversial voter fraud investigation, in which the Sheriff’s Department confiscated thousands of ballots in Riverside County. State Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta led the court challenges. Bianco said he suspended his investigation in late March, citing “politically motivated cases and court requests.”

But the governor publicly celebrated the California Supreme Court’s decision this week that Bianco halt the investigation.

“This corrupt sheriff chased conspiracy theories, tried to undermine our election, and got the verdict he deserved,” Newsom wrote on X, Elon Musk’s social media. “The denial of Trump’s election and MAGA is a cancer, a threat to our democracy, and it must be stopped.”

Rob Stutzman, a Republican political consultant in California, compared Newsom’s post about Bianco to “trying to return a gift.” An attack on the Democratic governor could boost Bianco’s profile and support among voters who hate Newsom.

“It’s possible that Trump bailed the Democrats out of their trouble by nominating Hilton and that Newsom’s response was to elevate and draw attention to Bianco, it doesn’t make sense, and that’s all Bianco wanted in this whole vote-getting scheme that he started,” Stutzman said.

Newsom’s reluctance to endorse a Democrat in the race is, in part, a reflection of his feelings about leaving the position he has held for eight years and the recognition of his “sell-by date” in office. His responses to questions about the race ranged from refusing to comment to stating that even voters don’t seem interested in the race.

The focus of national politics, Trump’s attention is drawn “24 hours a day” and previous speculation that former Vice President Kamala Harris or US Sen. Alex Padilla will run for the governor distracted from the candidates in this field, he said.

“But when I’m out in the community, people don’t talk to me about it, which is very interesting this late, weeks and weeks before early voting,” Newsom said in March. “And, because of that, I’m not as engaged as I should be.”

His words showing that he is not a strong candidate for this race did not go down well with other candidates. Some Democrats, including San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, were already opposed to Newsom’s record.

For Newsom, not working is more dangerous than picking a loser, Kouser said. While California’s dominant system and poor state party leadership would be a liability if Democrats lose, giving California power to the GOP will strengthen criticism of Newsom’s leadership.

“A Republican victory in the Newsom administration will be read, on the national stage, as a repudiation of his legacy,” Kouser said.