The Russian Triad Is Now on the Same Page About South-Eminating Threats from NATO
Yves here. This observation from Andrew Korybko explains one of the many ways in which Russia defends its position, politically and militarily, in the event that NATO or the EU rearranges the military lines, it can come out of its underwear and become a real threat. Russia remembers well how a seemingly comatose Germany was able to wake up after World War I.
By Andrew Korybko, an American political analyst based in Moscow who focuses on the transition of the global system to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Originally published on his website
Representatives of the Presidential Administration, the Department of Defense, and the Department of Foreign Affairs have recently faced these threats, which threaten to escalate into a three-proxy war against Russia in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia if not prevented in advance.
Last August’s announcement of the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) took Russia by complete surprise. Prior to the unveiling of this massive building, Russia assumed that Armenia and Azerbaijan would comply with the final ceasefire agreed by Moscow in November 2020 by opening a cross-border tunnel that would be protected by the FSB. Instead, they replaced Russia’s role with the US, and this route now has the dual function of NATO’s military route to Central Asia.
The UK was quick to lift the arms embargo on Armenia and Azerbaijan before separately strengthening military ties with the latter. Between these two steps, Azerbaijan announced that its armed forces have ended their years-long effort to comply with NATO standards. Kazakhstan also secured an important mineral deal with the US before announcing that it would begin producing conventional NATO shells. Vance then visited Armenia and Azerbaijan in February. All this is similar to Russia’s encirclement of NATO.
It wasn’t until recently that Russia overcame this strategic military shock. Before the trip of the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan to Moscow at the beginning of April, which was evaluated here as a moment of truth in their relations, the Russian Triad – the Presidential Administration, the Ministry of Defense, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the three main institutions of Russian policy making – were silent. However, after that disastrous meeting, their representatives finally began to warn of threats from the south from NATO.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk told TASS afterwards that TRIPP “disturbed the regional balance that has existed since 1828”. In late April, Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov informed the SCO that “We are closely monitoring the efforts of states outside the region to ensure the presence of troops and logistics in Central Asia.” At the time, Azerbaijan had recently entered into a de facto military alliance with Ukraine, consistent with its close military ties with the US, Turkey, and the UK.
This week, the last part of the Russian Triad entered the headlines after the Director of the Third CIS Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry Alexander Sternik told TASS that “[EU countries] they do not hide their intention to ‘defeat’ Russia in the West and cooperate with our partners. [in Central Asia] in relation to similar goals, partially covered. They do this using vague terms like ‘economic diversification’ and ‘protection against external threats.’”
Unspoken but obvious to all credible officials watching Russia’s NATO-led TRIPP spin-off is that Turkiye’s “Organization of Turkic States” (OTS), which includes as a unified military and security group, is threatening to replace the CSTO with allied members Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The aim is to “hunt” those two like NATO and the EU respectively in the process of “poaching” Armenia from the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union. That would be a disaster for Russian security if it happened.
Azerbaijan’s location anchors it with an irreplaceable role in Russia’s strategic environment driven by TRIPP and OTS. If this process is not quickly stopped and instead accelerates uncontrollably, then shadow NATO member Azerbaijan and neighboring Kazakhstan, a bloc that wants to follow in its footsteps, could coordinate a three-proxy war with Russia and Ukraine. The Russian Triad is ultimately aware of these threats, so the Kremlin may quickly try to negate them, but it is not clear how.
