Is strongman leader and MAGA darling Viktor Orbán about to be fired? What you need to know before the Hungarian elections

Budapest – After nearly two decades in power, Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán may be deposed as the country’s leader. elections for the country’s parliament per week.

Recent polls show Orbán, a close international ally of President Trump, and his ruling Fidesz party trailing the center-right opposition Tisza Party and its leader Péter Magyar in an election that will be closely watched by observers on both sides of the Atlantic.

Independent observers and European Union officials have accused Orbán’s government of continuing attacks on the country’s democratic institutions and the rule of law since he took office in 2010. In 16 years since he took overthe country has dropped to the rank of the most corrupt country in the European Union, according to the UK-based anti-corruption group Transparency International.

Orbán has used his party’s current power in the Hungarian parliament to undermine the independence of the judiciary, suppress independent media, demonize immigrants and discrimination against LGBTQ peoplesaid Human Rights Watch. Orbán has also been known to be racist in public once racist statementshe calls the refugees “Muslim invaders” and says Hungarians don’t want to be a “mixed race.”

Freedom House, a US-based pro-democracy nonprofit, classified Hungary as “partially free,” citing problems with free and fair elections and the weakening of independent institutions under Orbán’s leadership.

Despite concerns about the decline of Democracy in the country, a Thursday poll by the independent democracy research group IDEA Institute showed that Orbán’s Fidesz party was supported by only 37% of the electorate. Tisza’s centre-right party is supported by 50% of determined voters, according to polls.

Could Trump lose a key ally?

Orbán has been an ally of President Trump the world’s closest allies since Mr. Trump was first elected as the president of the United States in 2016. He is the only leader of the European Union who publicly supported the first request of Mr. in the last ten years.

On Thursday, Mr. Trump gave a full endorsement of the Hungarian leader to Truth Social.

“The Honorable Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, is a truly strong and powerful Leader, with a proven track record of delivering remarkable results,” wrote Mr. Trump. “Viktor is working hard to Protect Hungary, Grow the Economy, Create Jobs, Promote Trade, Stop Illegal Immigration, and Ensure LAW AND ORDER!”

The cooperation between the Trump and Orbán administrations was on full display on Tuesday when Vice President JD Vance publicly campaigned alongside the Hungarian leader in Budapest.

“Will you stand for monarchy and democracy? Will you stand for Western civilization? Will you stand for freedom, truth and the God of our fathers?” Vance asked those attending the Orbán campaign. “Then my friends, go to the polls this weekend, stand with Viktor Orbán because he represents you and he represents all these things.

The relationship goes beyond public displays of support. Orbán’s policies were hailed by some American policy experts as a blueprint for how the US should be governed. Dr. Kevin Roberts, president of the influential Heritage Foundation, described Orban’s leadership as “a model of normal governance” in 2024.

As CBS News previously reported, the pro-Orbán Conservative Research Institute Danube Institute also agreed to host visiting researchers from The Heritage Foundation to study Hungarian policies in various fields in 2023. Heritage and Danube have signed an agreement that does not involve financial transactions between either party.

“I’m proud to call Viktor Orbán a friend and colleague, and I’m proud of the strong relationship between Heritage and the Danube Institute,” Roberts told CBS News at the time.

Orbán also attended the launch of Mr.Peace Board“Davos and it first meeting in Washington, DC In February, the United States and Hungary signed a nuclear weapons cooperation agreement.

Budapest has also hosted far-right world leaders and MAGA activists in the international version of the Conservative Political Action Conference four years ago.

“I think it’s good that we cooperate,” CPAC founder Matt Schlapp, former White House political director, told CBS News last year, about bringing the conference to Hungary.

“I think (Hungary’s) border and immigration policies have changed the whole conversation in Europe,” Schlapp said. “Of course it is between Orbán and Trump that has established this idea that you should not just take an arbitrary number of illegal immigrants because some international institution tells you that you should.”

Ukraine and Russia are also monitoring the Hungarian elections

The election could have a major impact on Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II. Orbán has been opposed to European Union support for Ukraine and has warm relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Although Magyar has criticized both positions, experts say that deeper support for Ukraine’s western integration would prove easier than dismantling Hungary’s deep dependence on Russian oil.

Hungary’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels has deepened since then Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. A report from the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD), a European public policy institute, says that in 2025, Hungary imported 93% of its oil from Russia, up from 61% in 2021.

In recent months, a dispute over a single oil pipeline has cooled relations between Budapest and Kyiv. In February, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó announced that Hungary would freeze a €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine until Kyiv restarts the flow of oil through the Druzhba pipeline, which runs from Russia through Ukraine to Hungary. Orbán has threatened to break what he calls Ukraine’s “oil embargo” by force, and in March, the Hungarian parliament passed a resolution rejecting Ukraine’s entry into the European Union and opposing further financial or military aid to Kyiv.

Ukrainian officials say Hungary is using the pipeline as an excuse to serve Russian interests. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the pipeline was damaged during a Russian drone attack and must be repaired before it can be reopened. He also launched a personal attack on Orbán. During a cabinet meeting in March, Zelenskyy referred to giving the Hungarian prime minister’s speech “to our Army – our boys can call him and talk to him in their language.”

This controversy made Zelenskyy part of Orbán’s so-called “anti-war” campaign. Fidesz campaign boards show the Ukrainian president asking for money and representing a “war lobby” in Brussels.

As tensions escalate between Budapest and Kyiv, Russia has deepened cooperation – and support – for Orbán’s government. Leaked phone calls in recent weeks between Hungarian ambassador Péter Szijjártó and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov revealed the Hungarian official coordinating the action with his Kremlin counterpart. And Russian intelligence has planned operations to boost Orbán’s popularity, including planning a fake assassination attempt, according to the Washington Post.

During a visit to Budapest this week, Vance said the reports do not amount to attempts to interfere in the election – but allegations that Ukraine is seizing electricity could be there.

“Ukrainians are blocking pipelines, causing suffering to Hungarians in an effort to influence the election, that’s not foreign influence,” Vance said. “It doesn’t pass the smell test.”