Conor here: Putin seems to have more than enough reasons to resort to some of the measures Korybko mentions below. The problem is that it is not clear whether Zelensky and his European bosses subscribe to the realpolitik deterrence theory. They are determined to fight to the “last Ukraine”—and perhaps even more in their war against Russia. Although Korybko talks about the use of tactical nuclear weapons to eventually reverse the ban, why do we think that would work?
In the meantime, Moscow continues on a slow burn path:
The Russians reportedly hit the Dniprogres bridge and dam (which serves as a bridge) in the city of Zaporizhzhia. A worrying development due to the media campaign in Russia to start destroying bridges across the Dnipro as a way of revenge for the drone attack on Moscow.…
— Leonid Ragozin (@leonidragozin) June 20, 2026
As for what drives Zelensky and his boss’s threats against Belarus? Here is one theory:
IMO his “plan” is to credibly threaten to invade Belarus to force Russia to withdraw troops and disrupt the entire summer offensive season. Don’t really think it will work, they don’t have the archives for that, but who knows.
— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) June 19, 2026
And on the other hand, it looks like Zelensky may start threatening Poland soon:
Zelensky mails a Polish order to the President of Poland after Nawrocki stripped him of it for praising the UPA which killed countless Poles, Jews and Ukrainians. The Bandera OUN has organized the UPA in the police to assist in the extermination of the Nazi race.… pic.twitter.com/f9mllxZ3Nm
— Ivan Katchanovski (@I_Katchanovski) June 20, 2026
By Andrew Korybko, an American political analyst based in Moscow who focuses on the transition of the global system to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Originally published in his website.
Russia cannot allow the US-backed Ukraine to invade Belarus, otherwise it risks losing its closest allies, whether it is the destruction or “defection” of Lukashenko to the West, or a situation that could shift the strategic balance of power in the Ukrainian Conference to Russia’s worst position.
Zelensky gave Lukashenko one week to remove air defenses and drone relay transmitters from their shared border or Ukraine would do the same for him. This comes amid growing tensions between them that have been simmering since the spring after Zelensky hinted that Ukraine could kidnap Lukashenko as the US captured Maduro over an alleged imminent Belarusian invasion of Ukraine. This is very similar to their summer 2024 issue which readers read more about here, here, and here.
The key difference between then and now, however, is that the West and Ukraine no longer respect Russia’s “red lines” after Putin’s best efforts to stop a dangerous cycle that could lead to World War III were inadvertently misunderstood as “weakness”. Being the careful pragmatist that he is, he calculated his numbers and thought that they would stop after realizing that they were playing with fire, but what happened is that they no longer take Russia’s deterrence seriously.
Two years ago, Ukraine invaded Russia’s Kursk Region, carried out “Operation Spiderweb” against its nuclear triad, tried to kill Putin at his residence in Valdai, started long drone strikes against St. from Putin. This provoked a strong reaction from the top leaders of Russian thought.
Top hawk Sergey Karaganov is still insisting on a first strike against Europe, first with conventional weapons and then with nukes if they retaliate, in return for the blockade even though Putin declared in early June that such talk is “not just nonsense; it’s offensive.” Meanwhile, former top Russian spy Andrey Bezrukov has warned that the West is trying to “boil the frog”, one of its goals being to eliminate its nuclear power. He called on Russia to stop being “nice” to its enemies and finally enforce its “red lines”.
Zelensky’s end to Lukashenko gives Putin an opportunity to restore the blockade. Belarus is a defense partner of Russia and both participate in the Union State project. In addition, Russia also has Oreshnik hypersonic missiles and smart nukes in Belarus, which are planted precisely for deterrence purposes. As Putin himself announced in September 2024, “We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in case we attack Russia and Belarus as a member of the Union State.”
Therefore, Putin could advise Lukashenko to reject Zelensky’s conclusion, promising that Russia will retaliate against Ukraine for any attack on Belarus by authorizing the first military use of Oreshniks (he recently clarified that before that such use in Ukraine was for experimental purposes). If Ukraine’s aggression against Belarus is significant, such as attacking 500 targets a top drone commander said was targeted there late last month, then Russia may retaliate with strategic nukes instead.
Russia cannot allow the US-backed Ukraine to attack Belarus, otherwise it risks losing its closest allies, whether it is the destruction or “defection” of Lukashenko to the West, or a situation that could shift the strategic balance of power in the Ukrainian Conference to Russia’s worst position. So Putin must finally restore the blockade or risk the worst-case scenario of the end of this proxy war. The outcome of the conflict has yet to be decided, but that can change quickly depending on what you do.
