Yves here. The spectacle of the European electorate losing their minds over Russia and predicting an immediate nuclear strike is simply insane. But this level of self-destructive cray-cray is becoming the new normal.
By Andrew Korybko, an American political analyst based in Moscow who focuses on the transition of the global system to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Originally published on his website
France’s planned deployment of nuclear-armed Rafale fighter jets to the Arctic, Central Europe, and possibly the Balkans poses a new strategic threat to Russia.
The announcement in late April that France and Poland will carry out routine nuclear tests, which analysts believe are aimed against Russia (mainly Kaliningrad) and Belarus, represents the first call for what French President Emmanuel Macron called “forward deterrence”. It followed his speech at the beginning of the year in which he presented the concept, essentially the extension of the French nuclear umbrella over Europe, which came shortly after the expiration of NEW START.
The Telegraph detailed what Macron was thinking in their article “How France took the nuclear option to make Putin think twice”. Rafale planes equipped with smart nukes will be sent not only to Poland, but also to the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden, Denmark, and Germany, all of which have shown interest in his “forward deterrence” plan. The day after their article was published, Norway announced that it would participate in the program, thus holding nuclear tests as Poland would participate.
The tactical aspect of the nukes France is considering using with its Rafales across Europe is important, the Telegraph explains, because they are part of what its nuclear doctrine calls a “nuclear warning weapon”. This refers to “a single, non-renewable, limited nuclear strike that could be directed at a military target.” The aim is for the targeted intervention, understood as Russia, to stop military operations and use only diplomatic means to resolve any potential conflict.
Importantly, Romania previously confirmed that it had invited France to join the “forward deterrence” program, but its new president surprisingly rejected the proposal to host nuclear components despite the fact that the French military was already in charge. If it reverses, then France’s Rafales in Norway could threaten Russia’s Arctic bases with strategic nukes, Poland’s could threaten those in Kaliningrad and Belarus, while Romania-based Rafales could threaten Crimea. This represents a new strategic threat to Russia.
In the future, the “cordon sanitaire” assembled in the Arctic-Baltic by the efforts led by the UK, Central Europe by the efforts led by Poland, and all its southern area by the efforts led by Turkey will be consolidated, with Turkish influence possibly extending to Romania as seen here. All the while, Germany and Poland are competing to build the largest army in NATO Europe (Poland’s is currently the largest), but Germany could pose a 1941-like threat to Russia if it eventually advances.
These trends are very dangerous for Russia as they are all happening on its doorstep. Worse, the Baltic countries that oppose Russia may be emboldened by these events to start a crisis with Russia or to open a second side to support Ukraine if the ongoing conflict resumes sometime after its inevitable end, thus risking a nuclear crisis if France reaffirms its “forward deterrence” with Russia. Russia may launch a nuclear first strike against NATO.
The last time France agreed to defend a European country, it abandoned Poland to the Nazis during the “fake war”, so the presentation indicates that it may repeat this in the future. Those countries near the Eastern Flank of NATO that participate in France’s “forward deterrence” program such as Poland, Romania may one day, and Finland may also be able to and the Baltic States, so they should remember this in case they get ideas about provoking Russia under the cover of the French nuclear umbrella.
