With just days to go in the campaign and polls placing him in an unexpectedly strong third place – maybe even second – Tom Steyer has been pushed back. But MAGA’s favorite Riverside sheriff and Republican challenger Chad Bianco is almost certainly done.
That means there is no chance of a Republican sweep in this blue state, and suddenly, what was until now the primary race for the governor has turned into a small chance but – in the end unexpected – two Democrats on the November ticket.
“The odds are low,” political data expert Paul Mitchell told me, “But there’s always a chance.”
You put somewhere under 10%. But strange things happened. For example, Spencer Pratt.
Those of you who are holding on to your votes like winning lottery tickets, and those who plan to vote in person, will largely decide what happens next: The Xavier Becerra-Steve Hilton top two is the obvious choice for Becerra since there aren’t enough Republican voters in the state to hold a general election. The Becerra-Steyer standoff will force both candidates to define California’s vision beyond liberal ideals.
Personally, I don’t mind seeing California have that Dem-on-Dem round so that voters of all parties (or none) have a chance to press these potential leaders down to the details of their policies. So far, this election has been easy in the details, but the state is facing real problems – from a failing health care system to fuel prices that even lawmakers don’t understand.
Everything changes when a candidate becomes the winner, so maybe it would be good for democracy to have an old-fashioned war of ideas at a time when California’s future holds many unknowns.
Is Steyer just a real estate agent trying to buy an office? Does Becerra see a lot of interest from the companies that have funded his campaign? Those are the top questions many voters still have.
“There are many shades of blue,” noted Chad Peace of the Independent Voter Project, on a press call in support of open primaries. “If we only look at things like, ‘Oh, there’s red and there’s blue,’ we forget that.”
But voters remain apprehensive, and the ballot is still packed — and the top three, former Rep. Katie Porter and San José Mayor Matt Mahan are still campaigning, albeit with support.
Voters, Mitchell said, are “really thinking about the impact” of their vote, and maybe they don’t want to throw it at a candidate they don’t think has a chance. That’s why the new polls showing Steyer as a contender may generate momentum, especially for voters who see themselves as filling a challenge to one of the candidates for the fall election.
Recent polls have Steyer as close to dead as Republican front-runner Hilton, with both barely above or below 20%. Becerra, a former California attorney general and former Biden Cabinet secretary, leads both by a few points, especially among Latino voters. As my colleague Gustavo Arellano said, Becerra will be the second governor of the Latino region, after Romualdo Pacheco, who held the office for 10 months in 1875.
“It’s a Dem-Dem race, maybe we’ll put more people in, because it’s going to be a tough fight, you know?” Diane McClure told me. She is a board member of the California Nurses Assn., which endorsed Steyer early on — in large part because she supports a single-payer health insurance plan, which the union has long championed.
McClure, of course, would like to see Steyer take the top spot in that easy-to-beat Hilton situation, though that seems doubtful. But the Steyer-Becerra race?
“Maybe it’s a good thing, maybe it will wake up some people,” he said.
For his part, Steyer is staying the course. At a stop in Sacramento on Friday, he walked around chatting with about 40 fans, mostly union fans, wearing the trademark Nikes, this time a classic pair with a tartan plaid swoop.
“Four days,” said Steyer when he finally picked up the phone. “I really need you to stand with me. But let me say this: you stand with me, I stand with you.”
Unlike his fellow debaters, Steyer is charismatic, and, although it seems unlikely based on his television appearances, he has a good spirit dotted with a little profanity.
“Live well, buy a house, have a good education for your children and retire,” he said. “That’s what we’re trying to build here. We can easily do that. If people say it can’t be done, it’s bull-, it’s bull-.”
It was enough to shake Ricky Carter, one of the few non-union members in the room, who had been invited because his wife, Barbara, was in a prayer line with another invitee. An older black man from South Los Angeles, Carter represents the demographic in which Steyer is popular.
“I believe him, he found it in here,” he said, punching his heart. “It’s not about color, creed and race. … It’s about people.”
Of course, elections affect people, even if it is not always heard. But suddenly, this did.
