In 2015 I wrote that Baltimore’s incarceration is down and crime is up and, as I predicted, Baltimore entered the high crime rating. After the Freddie Gray riots, arrests decreased and crime increased but crime remained high even after repeated arrests. In my view, this attack fed on itself: high crime strained police resources, and that difficulty—in and of itself—reduced the likelihood of punishment, maintaining the balance of high crime, as in my crime wave paper.
However, starting around 2022 crime in Baltimore – especially murder – began to decline.
In April, Baltimore had four homicides, the lowest number in a single month since at least 1970. So far this year, there were 38, compared to 51 at the same time last year. At the current rate, Baltimore will end 2026 with fewer than 100 homicides. There were 323 just four years ago.
How do we go from a city where the question is how much crime can increase, to where the question is how can it die? The answer may be linked to the decline in homicide rates across the country, spurred by police reinstatement as the brutality of the George Floyd years subsided. But that raises the question of which cities across the country are doing well.
So what caused the decline? We can’t be entirely sure as national trends are confusing but Charles Fain Lehman has a great piece in FP arguing clearly that the answer boils down to carrots, sticks and the random nature of killing. Start with the latter. A significant part of the killing is very predictable. A gang member is shot today. Next week, you can expect revenge. Moreover, you know who will kill more than you know who will be killed. That is, a close friend—a fellow gang member or a family member—will be the killer. Sometimes pre-Cog isn’t that hard.
So with this in mind, Baltimore, under a new mayor and a tough criminal prosecutor, began to intervene in the cycle of murder before it happened, namely a prevention-oriented program based on Operation Ceasefire in Boston.
This method involves a thorough investigation of all shootings that occur in the city. Every week, the Baltimore Police Department and our partners review the events of the week….For every shooting, GVRS mandates that known associates of the victim be contacted.
…At one recent coordination meeting, about 20 people gathered around a conference room table at Baltimore’s Doxa Ministries Church Without Walls. Under the direction of Reginald Williams from the Mayor’s Office of Security and Mayoral Cooperation, they talked about a new “transmission” related to the victim of the latest incident. One had a long criminal history and was under house arrest. Another, who was not an adult, was also a victim a few years earlier.
Both men will be knocked out by a number of people who will attend the meeting. They will be offered services—job training, tattoo removal, relocation, whatever they need to get out of “that life.” But they will also get a clear message, delivered verbally and in a letter from Mayor Scott: Baltimore is watching them—and it will come after them.
Carrots, sticks, and a little Pre-Cog. They all seem to work.
